The Candidates’ Market Report
When this column began in February 2019, President Trump was the two to one favorite to win the presidency, Joe Biden was a nine to one outsider to win the Democrat nomination, and it appeared that Trump’s opponent in the 2020 election would be Senator Kamala Harris. Over one and a half years the odds have swung back and forth, political betting has become a favored pastime of many, and still, it is anyone’s guess who is going to eventually emerge triumphant.
During this last week of campaigning, President Trump has seen his approval ratings hover steadily around the low 50s, and his approval from black voters (a key demographic in any election cycle) is at 35%. While few pollsters believe that 35% of black voters will actually cast a ballot in favor of the incumbent, if Trump can garner 15% of this vote, he would not only secure a win, but perhaps even change the future of electioneering.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 52% ( + 1% )
- Congress – 14% ( no change )
Senate Map:
The shape of the 2021 Senate is arguably more important than who wins the presidency. Without a Senate majority, the president will be unable to pass major legislation (other than via executive order), which will seriously impact the effectiveness of the administration. This year, Republicans are defending more seats than Democrats, and as such, the Senate GOP is pushing hard for a solid win.
RealClearPolitics has the likely breakdown as follows:
- Republicans: 46
- Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Dems): 45
- Toss-Up: 9
As America goes to the polls, the very latest surveys suggest that of the nine toss-up states, six will go to Democrats and three to Republicans. However, many of the polls that point to a Democrat lead are of less than 700 respondents and with a margin of error over 4%.
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to presidential power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest.
Florida
- Republicans – 8/11
- Democrats – Even
Texas
- Republicans – 3/10
- Democrats – 11/5
Arizona
- Democrats – 4/7
- Republicans – 5/4
Colorado
- Democrats – 1/33
- Republicans – 9/1
Georgia
- Republicans – 4/6
- Democrats – 11/10
Iowa
- Republicans – 4/11
- Democrats – 2/1
Maine
- Democrats – 1/14
- Republicans – 11/2
Michigan
- Democrats – 1/5
- Republicans – 3/1
North Carolina
- Democrats – 8/11
- Republicans – Even
Ohio
- Republicans – 2/5
- Democrats – 7/4
Pennsylvania
- Democrats – 4/9
- Republicans – 7/4
Presidential Election:
- Joe Biden – 4/7
- Donald Trump – 6/4
The final polls are in, and almost all point to a majority for challenger Joe Biden. However, this is not a popular vote race, and it is entirely possible that President Trump could lose the popular vote but win the presidency through the Electoral College. One of the few pollsters who accurately called the 2016 race was Rasmussen Reports. They predicted – based on their ongoing polling – that Hillary Clinton would win 2% more votes than Trump – she won 2.1% more. This time around, they report that Joe Biden will receive 1% more votes than the incumbent; if this is the case, it is difficult to see how the challenger can win the Electoral College.
All eyes are on the swing states as America goes to the polls, and pundits are putting together pathways to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to claim victory.
You can join the Liberty Nation team to get the latest results and analysis as the night goes on by tuning in to our Big Bottom Flash Reports: All the info in 90-second slots at the bottom of every hour. Broadcasts start at 6:30 pm Eastern.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
