Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) has spent the year traveling and campaigning, doing his best to keep and even grow the GOP majority in the House. With national polling showing former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris ever so slightly and Republicans poised to pick up the majority in the Senate, the pressure is on. Will all his hard work pay off?
Mike Johnson, Nationwide
There are currently 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats in the US House, leaving three vacancies. Speaker Johnson has crisscrossed the country spending time with and stumping for Republican candidates in the hopes of growing the GOP majority – and he has his work cut out for him. By the time the election was just a week away, Johnson had been to 243 cities across 40 states. It was there, in Bethlehem, PA, that the speaker described the task of legislating with such a slim margin:
“It’s not like herding cats. It is like exotic animals – and half of them have rabies in Washington. It’s a very dangerous job,” Johnson said in a packed GOP field office. “I spend half my day as the Speaker of the House, the other half as a mental health counselor. The solution is to grow that majority and to have people who can come in on day one and perform for the people who govern.”
What does the lawmaker from Louisiana have to show for his efforts? So far, not a lot, according to the RealClear Polling “Battle for the House 2024” map. To maintain the majority, Republicans need 218 seats. So far, RCP predicts 201 seats for the GOP (186 considered safe, seven that are likely to be retained, and eight leaning their way). For Democrats, the tally stands at 192 (174 safe, 13 likely, and five leaning). It doesn’t take a math whiz to see there’s no clear majority yet in the polling. There are also 23 seats currently held by Democrats that could go either way as well as another 18 currently held by the GOP. These toss-up seats are currently too close to call in the polls, and this is where the majority will be won – for someone.
If Republicans only keep their 18 toss-up seats, they’ll manage to maintain the majority at 219, but it will be an even tighter margin by one, slightly harder for Johnson to manage, one would assume, than the current Congress. But a slim majority in the House combined with Republican control of the White House and Senate is still a trifecta government, and, according to Johnson, party leadership is already working on an agenda for how to best use that slim majority over the Democrats.
What’s on the Docket
Speaker Johnson has already been working with his colleagues in the Senate on how they’ll use the budget reconciliation process “very aggressively” to extend tax cuts and pursue regulatory reform. He has talked about overhauling both the Affordable Care Act and the CHIPS and Science Act – much to the consternation of Democrats.
Before any of that, however, Republicans would have to first win a majority on November 5 and then sort out its own leadership. While Johnson seems confident that he’ll once again be voted party leader, actually being elected House Speaker again requires a majority in the whole House – which will be difficult at best if the GOP doesn’t grow the majority, and impossible at worst should they lose it instead. It was earlier this year he faced a motion to remove him from the speakership. The vote went his way, of course, with every Democrat and most Republicans agreeing to table the motion. Just 43 Republicans followed Marjorie Taylor Greene in trying to oust him. With Democrats likely to vote for their own leader, Johnson – or any GOP contender, for that matter – needs the support of nearly all House Republicans.
Donald Trump and the Little Secret
During his rally at Madison Square Garden, Donald Trump at one point turned to look at Mike Johnson, who was there, and said: “I think with our little secret we’re going to do really well with the House, right? Our little secret is having a big impact.”
“He and I have a little secret – we will tell you what it is when the race is over,” Trump then told the crowd. The very next day, Johnson was asked about it. “By definition, a secret is not to be shared – and I don’t intend to share this one,” he replied. One thing former President Trump didn’t mind saying, though, was that he thought Johnson would remain in charge of a GOP majority in the House for a long time.
Johnson later went on to describe the secret as “nothing scandalous,” insisting that it’s just a “get out the vote” tactic – but, he assures that he and other Republicans have been “having a ball” over speculation from the Democrats as to what the secret might be. “The media, their heads are exploding,” he told reporters. “All this conjecture is actually hilarious to us, that people are apoplectic about this,” he said. “It’s a – it’s one of our get-out-the-vote strategies. That’s what we’re talking about. And it’s almost tongue-in-cheek.” Perhaps the speaker can pull off the hat trick: keep and even grow the Republican majority, remain Speaker of the House, and hand Trump a trifecta government. It’ too early to tell, though, just where those 42 toss-ups will land.
