If you aren’t worried about America’s nuclear deterrence, you should be. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) just released its latest assessment of the nuclear capabilities of America’s most dangerous enemies: Nuclear Challenges: The Growing Capabilities of Strategic Competitors and Regional Rivals. Replace the word “challenges” with “threats,” and you get a better picture of the dire situation. China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran continue to grow larger on America’s nuclear threat windscreen.
Nuclear Challenges
Over the past four years, America’s nuclear posture has been deemed inadequate. In this presidential election, leadership choices becomes even more significant. The DIA report executive summary opens with a sobering analysis:
“Russia, China, and North Korea are modernizing their legacy stockpiles by incorporating advanced technologies to penetrate or avoid missile defense systems. Countries are also developing nuclear weapons with smaller yields, improved precision, and increased range for military of coercive use … Beijing has far surpassed earlier growth estimates assessed in 2018 and is currently exceeding 500 deliverable nuclear warheads in its stockpile.”
The report estimates that China will reach 1,000 warheads by the year 2030. Perhaps more troubling from a deterrence perspective is that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) emphasizes lower yield, more tactical atomic weapons. Moving away from high yield in the mega-ton category gives the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) more flexibility and makes the use of nuclear weapons more suitable for a “proportional” response, as the report suggests. However, the PLA’s more “appealing” choice of tactical nuclear weapons makes the US deterrence calculus more difficult. Furthermore, the DIA analysis asserts, “The PLA is implementing a launch-on-warning posture where it would be able to, upon warning of [a] missile strike, launch a counterstrike before an enemy first strike can detonate.” Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia is assisting China to establish a ballistic missile “early warning system.”
There seems to be little desire on the part of Beijing to engage in nuclear disarmament talks as China’s nuclear capability is in ascendancy. The Biden-Harris administration’s first attempts to create a mutual accommodation relationship with the PRC set the stage for a geopolitical mismatch that has continued until this day. The Chinese gained the negotiation’s upper hand and have not let go. Despite the Biden-Harris administration’s entreaties to Chinese leadership to cease aggressive activities against Taiwan, the intensity has increased. In addition, the military collaboration between the PLA and Russia’s armed forces has grown.
Russia sustains its stockpile of 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads with a bomber force, submarine fleet, and ground-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles to deliver the warheads. Additionally, Russia claims to have nuclear weapons capable of avoiding US countermeasures. Sino-Russian military exercises have increased in frequency and magnitude. “Russia launched its largest navy drills of the post-Soviet era … alongside Chinese warships, the latest sign of deepening military cooperation between the two global powers. The drills will continue until September 16 and will involve more than 400 warships, submarines, and other maritime vessels,” France 24 reported.
Other Global Actors Present Threats
North Korea presents a unique problem for the United States. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Pyongyang’s missile testing became less frequent, around 50 for nearly three years, during the Trump administration (no tests in 2018). North Korean tests began again in earnest with the Biden-Harris national security team in position. Between January 2021 and April 2023, there were more than 130 test firings by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). The DIA assessment of North Korea’s nuclear capability concludes: “North Korea has demonstrated the capability to produce plutonium and highly enriched uranium, has conducted nuclear tests, and has developed new ballistic missiles systems intended to strike regional and CONUS [Continental United States] targets.” The DPRK’s recent military agreement with Russia makes North Korea a more formidable threat than in the past.
The Middle East teeters on the brink of an Iran armed with nuclear weapons. Recent attacks on Israel by Iran are testimony to Tehran’s missile capability for launching a nuclear warhead. The failure of Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to limit the development of ballistic missile technology is one of the reasons the Trump administration withdrew from the agreement. As a result, “The Iranian missile force is the largest in the Middle East and can strike targets up to 2,000 km (over 1,200 miles) from Iran’s borders.” Numerous recent assessments reveal Iran may be on the cusp of having the wherewithal to develop a nuclear weapon. The Biden-Harris administration has failed to check Iran’s aggression through its proxies or Tehran’s direct attacks on Israel.
There have been few times in America’s recent history when the threat to the US homeland has been as significant. As Election Day looms, voters must consider the US position in a dangerous world. It is not growing less perilous. The DIA report is a call to action.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
