The Candidates’ Market Report
The president’s job approval rating is holding fairly steady, dropping a point or two here, gaining a point or two there, suggesting that recent shenanigans have little impact on his voter base. But the real interest this week should be in the approval ratings for Congress, which have seen a five-point jump … something that hasn’t happened for at least the last year. How this is spun in the media, however, may provide some solid entertainment.
With Democrats pushing hard for impeachment, it would be all too easy to read the recent spike as approval of what is taking place in the House. But what of the Senate? Could the recent spike be aimed as much at those in the Senate as at those in the House? The refusal, so far, of GOP senators to engage in the impeachment mayhem could be just as much to blame.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 47% ( – 2% )
- Congress – 23% ( + 5% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Elizabeth Warren – 10/11
- Joe Biden – 4/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 9/1
- Bernie Sanders – 9/1
- Hillary Clinton – 10/1
- Andrew Yang – 11/1
- Kamala Harris – 14/1
Elizabeth Warren has strengthened her lead in the Democratic race and is now almost a “sure thing” to win the nomination. Troubled Joe Biden, on the other hand, slips another half-point to a worrying 4/1. Both Buttigieg and Sanders have managed to increase their lot and are now joint third (having waved goodbye to Andrew Yang). Sanders’ resurgence likely has much to do with the Squad giving him an all-out endorsement, and AOC being particularly glowing about his failed 2016 bid.
Buttigieg appears to be the one to watch. There have been a host of positive media stories on the South Bend mayor in recent days, and his tackling of Warren on her refusal to state that Americans will be taxed more to pay for her platforms has helped break him out of the cookie-cutter pattern. If he can pitch himself as a “fiscally conservative” liberal, he might be able to sway Democrat voters who put their pocketbook first.
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – 6/5
- Elizabeth Warren – 9/4
- Joe Biden – 7/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 14/1
- Bernie Sanders – 16/1
- Andrew Yang – 20/1
- Hillary Clinton – 33/1
- Kamala Harris – 40/1
- Mike Pence – 40/1
- Nikki Haley – 50/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1
- Mitt Romney – 90/1
- Cory Booker – 100/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 150/1
President Trump remains the clear leader to win the White House in 2020, yet this last week, Elizabeth Warren managed to claw a quarter-point closer. What is perhaps most surprising is that it was ONLY a quart-point she gained. This has been a tough week for Trump with the House continuing to trumpet his impending doom … perhaps the money markets think she lacks the chops to make it all the way?
Pete Buttigieg managed to get four points closer to the White House in a rise that could take him all the way to the nomination, or at least the number two spot offer. If he can capitalize on this momentum, he may soon be jostling for elbow room as a top-tier candidate.
As soon as the media realized Hillary Clinton was only trying to sell her latest book, the hushed excitement withdrew leaving the former First Lady with a 13-point drop. Kamala Harris is fast slipping into extreme outsider territory but can comfort herself that her former third-tier mates (Booker and O’Rourke), have now fallen to almost insurmountable odds.
Donald Trump:
- Impeachment – 1/3
- Resignation – 1/12
- Trump to legalize waterboarding – 7/1
- Trump to have his likeness minted on US currency during his term- 100/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides or comment on this article at LibertyNation.com.
