The Candidates’ Market Report
The latest White House Watch from Rasmussen gives Joe Biden a single point lead over the president. After a spell in the wilderness of the polls and betting markets, it seems that the president may be back on track to win the November election. One of the most interesting features of this latest polling is that Trump is doing well with non-white voters; black support is hovering around 30% and “other” racial groups have the president tied with Biden at 41%.
Polling for the all-important swing states is still largely with Joe Biden (six out of the 11 major swingers are still for the Democrats), but again, this is tightening, with North Carolina now favoring Donald Trump – a figure also reflected in the betting odds.
As predicted in last week’s Political Horse Race, President Trump and Joe Biden are now neck and neck in the betting markets (see below for more details).
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 46% ( – 1% )
- Congress – 20% ( + 1% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest.
Florida
- Democrats – 8/11
- Republicans – Even
Texas
- Republicans – 2/9
- Democrats – 11/4
Arizona
- Democrats – 4/5
- Republicans – 10/11
Colorado
- Democrats – 1/8
- Republicans – 9/2
Georgia
- Republicans – 4/9
- Democrats – 13/8
Iowa
- Republicans – 4/11
- Democrats – 15/8
Maine
- Democrats – 1/7
- Republicans – 4/1
Michigan
- Democrats – 2/5
- Republicans – 7/4
North Carolina
- Republicans – 4/5
- Democrats – 10/11
Ohio
- Republicans – 4/7
- Democrats – 5/4
Pennsylvania
- Democrats – 8/15
- Republicans – 11/8
Presidential Election:
- Joe Biden – 10/11
- Donald Trump – 10/11
- Kamala Harris – 66/1
- Hillary Clinton – 90/1
- Mike Pence – 100/1
- Michelle Obama – 100/1
- Kanye West – 225/1
- Bernie Sanders – no odds under 500/1
The betting odds give both Republicans and Democrats 25 states each, a swing toward the GOP from last week with North Carolina now opting for Trump. This comes at the same time as President Trump manages to tie on 10/11 with Joe Biden to win the presidency. Almost certainly, this has much to do with the two national conventions. Following the DNC event, Biden failed to move the needle (although Trump gained some points), and during the GOP event Dems were likewise unable to land any blows.
The Electoral College betting odds have swung heavily back toward a Trump victory. Just last week, the odds of the president earning between 270 and 280 EC votes were 16/1, they’re now just 5/1.
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:
- 251 – 269 = 4/1
- 270 – 275 = 5/1
- 276 – 280 = 5/1
- 281 – 290 = 11/2
- 291 – 300 = 6/1
- 301 – 315 = 13/2
- 316 – 330 = 7/1
- 331 – 350 = 17/2
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
