The Candidates’ Market Report
The polls are in and the gamblers have laid their money down regarding the impeachment of President Donald Trump … and it doesn’t look good for Democrats. When the president said, “This impeachment represents an unprecedented and unconstitutional abuse of power by Democrat lawmakers unequaled in nearly two-and-a-half centuries of American legislative history,” 51% of the likely voters agreed with him completely. A majority see this as a partisan issue.
In fact, 49% of likely voters say that the whole thing is driven more by Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss rather than any supposed “High Crimes” committed by Trump. It also seems unlikely that voters will be willing to let this issue go, with 53% stating that the media is working in cooperation with House Democrats to remove the president from office. There will be a bill to settle at the end of this affair … the gambling odds show who’s on the hook to pay it.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 48% ( – 1% )
- Congress – 18% ( no change )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 15/8
- Bernie Sanders – 7/2
- Elizabeth Warren – 4/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 6/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 8/1
- Hillary Clinton – 13/1
- Andrew Yang – 18/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 25/1
- Tulsi Gabbard 66/1
Joe Biden has received a bump in numbers this week to win the nomination, jumping from just under 3/1 to 15/8. This spike in bets has one of two likely causes. Either the former VP has managed to distinguish himself from other candidates, or the gamblers have figured that the fix is in. After the “wine cave” event, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has dropped a point but the person pushing his downfall, Elizabeth Warren, failed to capitalize on her maneuvers, staying in steady third on 4/1.
Tulsi Gabbard, after voting “present” for the impeachment vote was scalded in a poll as being the most disliked Democrat candidate, overtaking Michael Bloomberg. However, the betting market suggests that this was a good move from her as she jumps from 100/1 to 66/1.
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – 5/6
- Joe Biden – 9/2
- Bernie Sanders – 15/2
- Elizabeth Warren – 11/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 12/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 14/1
- Hillary Clinton – 25/1
- Andrew Yang – 35/1
- Mike Pence – 40/1
- Nikki Haley – 50/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 50/1
- Michelle Obama – 66/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
- Mitt Romney – 100/1
The president maintains a strong lead to retake the White House in 2020 with Joe Biden a not-so-close second. Although Biden has upped his game by a point and a half, this is likely due to House Democrats running interference for him in the impeachment inquiry; he appears to cash bettors to be “the anointed one.” Bernie Sanders gained half a point, but for other top tier candidates, it was a downward slope.
Warren and Buttigieg both lost a point, Bloomberg and Yang lost two each. The field is starting to firm up and, bar any major events, looks set to stay much as it is now. We can expect Trump to solidify his position once the outcome of the Senate trial is on the horizon. Buttigieg may get a boost coming out of the Iowa Caucus, but how this will translate to nationwide support is as yet unknown.
Unless Elizabeth Warren can come up with something soon, she’s likely to be relegated to “outsider candidate” status not long after the new year.
Donald Trump:
- Senate Conviction – 12/1
- Complete First Term – 1/12
- How Many Republican Senators Vote to Convict Trump:
- Zero – EVS
- The required 15 to 19 – 12/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
