The Candidates’ Market Report
Congress receives a 6% approval rating boost this week in the wake of passing the $2 trillion relief package, but this could have gone either way. With the attempts at stuffing pork into the bill and the delays at the hands of lawmakers wanting to include their own “special extras,” the bill could have been a disaster. This hike in support shows that despite the divisive nature of politics, voters want their elected politicians to work on bipartisan issues.
President Trump’s job approval rating has been hitting highs this last week with several leading pollsters giving him 49%. The interesting fact is where this support is coming from … it’s not Republicans. While his base remains supportive on around 92%, the real swing came from Independents (+8%) and Democrats (+6%); this increase could prove vital in November.
Nearly all up-coming primaries have been canceled due to COVID-19; the 2020 election will be like no other and will most certainly be a referendum on Trump’s handling of this national emergency.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 48% ( + 2% )
- Congress – 23% ( + 6% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 1/7
- Andrew Cuomo – 14/1
- Bernie Sanders – 16/1
- Hillary Clinton – 16/1
- Michelle Obama – 40/1
With Joe Biden bunkered away and apparently trying to run an election campaign with little more than a faulty teleprompter and a dial-up connection, his betting has taken a hit. He remains the frontrunner with a comfortable 1/7 lead, yet his competitors all seem to be closing the gap. The biggest news this week is that New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is racing up the betting charts. Having entered the market at 20/1 and within days increased to 14/1, if he chose to actually run, Cuomo could certainly give Biden a run for his money.
Bypassing both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton (yes, there are still folks betting on her making a comeback), Cuomo may be looking like a safer pair of hands than Uncle Joe, thanks to his recent national exposure. Of course, the chance of Cuomo announcing a run is slim; abandoning New York during these uncertain times is likely not an option. In a recent interview with Chris Cuomo, he was insistent that he had no such plans.
Both Bernie and Hillary received a mild boost to 16/1 to win the nomination, but with little opportunity to campaign, Sanders can only hope for Biden to make himself less electable than he already is.
Primary Races
Head over to Liberty Nation’s Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls.
Primaries that are not taking place or are delayed due to the Coronavirus outbreak:
- Ohio
- Georgia
- Puerto Rico
- Louisiana
- Connecticut
- Maryland
- Indiana
- Kentucky
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – 10/11
- Joe Biden – 5/4
- Andrew Cuomo – 22/1
- Mike Pence – 33/1
- Bernie Sanders – 33/1
- Hillary Clinton – 50/1
- Nikki Haley – 100/1
- Michelle Obama – 100/1
It appears that Biden’s flirtation as being the frontrunner to win the presidency was little more than a blip that has now been rectified. President Trump looks set to retake the White House and it’s difficult to spot anything that can stop him. Andrew Cuomo is an outside longshot on 22/1, which will irk Bernie Sanders who is wallowing on 33/1.
With Trump on odds of 10/11, he should be feeling reasonably secure. Biden, on the other hand, not so much. He has a solid second-place position for now, but there is nipping at his heels. If for any reason Cuomo decides to run, his rapid rise suggests he would easily topple Biden and finally crush Sanders’ hopes. Bernie’s dreams rely on two aspects: pray that Cuomo stays out, and cross his fingers that Biden does himself reputational damage (or that the recent sexual assault allegation gives the DNC cold feet).
Donald Trump:
- Complete first term – Bets are no longer being taken on this as it seems a certainty that Trump will remain president until at least the end of his term.
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
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High School: The Primary and Caucus Process Explained
Middle School: The Primary and Caucus Process
Elementary School: Primaries and Caucuses: How Do They Work?
