Another day, another poll. Ho hum, some might say. After all, confidence in polls has been eroding since 2016, when most of them got it wrong, and Donald Trump toppled survey-favorite Hillary Clinton. Then, there was the Big Red Wave in 2022 that never really materialized. So why should we pay attention to these same pollsters now? The answer is simple: It’s all we have at this point, and the information they unearth will signal whether the Trump and Biden campaigns are headed in the right direction or need a course correction. If it’s true that the presidential race will come down to who wins only a few states, then polling in swing states does matter.
The latest noteworthy poll dropped May 13 and is worth a brief analysis. The New York Times teamed up with The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College to home in on battleground states, with the results signaling a clear edge for Trump. It’s not like this is new, as many polls have been leaning this way. However, this survey was conducted with a larger sample – just over 4,000 voters. It also split the results between registered and likely voters, the latter generally considered to be more accurate.
Swing States – It Don’t Mean a Thing If It Ain’t Got That Swing
In five of the six battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – the challenger, Trump, leads the incumbent Biden. Here are the raw percentages from the NYT/Siena Poll. The results are calculated using registered voters in a two-way match-up.
Arizona: Trump 49, Biden 42
Georgia: Trump 49, Biden 39
Michigan: Trump 49, Biden 42
Pennsylvania: Trump 47, Biden 44
Nevada: Trump 50, Biden 38
Wisconsin: Biden 47, Trump 45
To answer a few anticipated questions, North Carolina was not included as a swing state because the last three polls conducted in the Tar Heel State had Trump leading Biden outside the margin of error. And somewhat curiously – Michigan flips to Biden in a five-way race, signaling an unusual amount of support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the Wolverine State. But the trend is evident from the NYT/Siena poll that the former president appears to be pulling ahead in the swing states.
Conservatives React
While the presidential race remains close, a shift in battleground voters is significant. Liberty Nation queried our conservative focus group for their reaction to this recent poll, asking them, “Now that Trump is showing strength in the swing states, are you feeling confident about the presidential race?”
A retired registered nurse who lives in Pennsylvania remarked, “I WANT to feel more confident because Trump is ahead of Biden in the polls, but I can’t understand why they are even close given the state of our economy, our borders, crime levels, illegal immigrants and fentanyl, the Middle East war, and geopolitics. It unnerves me that he is not crushing Biden, whether you look at our state of affairs logically OR selfishly. How can there be that many people still polling for Biden? So, confident? No. Hopeful, but that may be a stretch. Let’s just say that I’m holding my breath.”
An entrepreneur in Ohio averred, “I am definitely more confident, especially in the five crucial states that Trump needs to win. I believe the momentum has shifted as evidenced by the 100,000+ people who attended the rally this weekend in Wildwood, New Jersey.” Then he added, “We all know how polls have been inaccurate previously, but I feel that they are accurate at this point given the fact that Biden is failing on all fronts, both domestically and internationally.”
A former librarian turned artist who lives on Florida’s west coast is less certain about the state of the race: “I think most polls do not accurately reflect the participant views because the questions can be constructed to frame the answer for a desired outcome or perspective. I would say that the polls showing Trump ahead of Biden are manipulative palaver designed to make Republican voters more hopeful that Trump could actually win and is gaining ground. Basically, I consider these polls a nice head fake.”
Our successful businessman, who splits his time between New York and Palm Beach, was adamant that polls are tricky devils to assess and provided these colorful remarks:
“Polls at this early point mean nothing to me. For instance, because of the Middle East war, Trump is ahead with young voters. Do we really think that will last until November? There is obviously some ‘protest polling,’ except if Trump is way ahead close to Election Day, there could be a ‘Hillary effect’ where soft Trump voters don’t think they need to vote.
“Trump will need to win by a significant margin to overcome the strong ground game of the Democrats, which has barely started up for the Republicans. If in swing states, Kari Lake can lose to an invisible candidate and Fetterman can win Pennsylvania, we can’t underestimate the Democratic potential to pull a barely breathing candidate over the finish line.”
Yet another conservative couple who live on Florida’s Sun Coast also signaled an uneasiness with the surveys: “The polls have been so wrong that we don’t trust them. After Saturday’s massive rally in Blue State, NJ, we think this election can be a Ronald Reagan-Jimmy Carter blowout! But we don’t trust the polls or even that the Democrats won’t find a way to cheat. With Biden falling behind, we are concerned that this could drive the Dems to prosecute/persecute Trump even more. Also, with millions of illegal immigrants crossing our border, let’s pray that they won’t be voting in this election. Then Biden will win and we can kiss our country goodbye.”
And finally, when asked about the NYT/Siena poll, a female conservative who lives in Georgia summed it up this way: “I don’t trust anything.”
Maybe Not Swinging, But Still Rattled
It appears many conservatives are still smarting from 2020 and wary of new polls showing Trump ahead. They take nothing for granted. Considering the highly contentious nature of this presidential election, there likely will be more polls than you can count as Election Day approaches. It’s probably best to consider trends rather than individual polls when trying to assess where the chips will land on November 6. But then again, the day after the election may not tell us much one way or another unless either Trump or Biden wins by a large, decisive, and incontestable margin.
