“It’s the economy, stupid” is an old refrain repeated by the punditry class since it was first coined by James Carville, ex-political adviser of former President Bill Clinton, in the early 1990s. One might think the phrase would be appropriate in today’s climate, as inflation has ravaged household finances and triggered miniature crises, whether the banking meltdown in early 2023 or sky-high mortgage rates. It is no secret that consumer confidence and sentiment are not what they were before the pandemic. But now that the media has all but declared mission accomplished on the soft-landing narrative, is the economy still a critical issue for voters heading into November? Yes and no.
Remember the Economy in November?
According to a Gallup poll released on October 9, 52% of registered US voters ranked the economy as the most important issue out of 22 subjects influencing their vote in November. This is the highest reading since the 2008 presidential election when 55% said the economy was an “extremely important” matter impacting their choice at the ballot box. Rounding out the top five issues were democracy in the US (49%), terrorism and national security (45%), Supreme Court Justice picks (45%), and immigration (41%).
So, it is indeed a no-brainer that the economy is a paramount topic before the November election. Since January 2021, cumulative inflation has surged more than 20%, Americans’ purchasing power has eroded 17%, and real (inflation-adjusted) hourly wages have slumped 3%. The US labor market is also giving a chorus of economists the jitters.
Case closed, right? Surprisingly – or unsurprisingly, depending on your feelings toward modern-day politics – there is a divergence between Republicans and Democrats about the economy. Sixty-six percent of registered Republicans and GOP-leaning independent voters say the economy is “extremely important,” followed by immigration (63%). Crime (52%) and taxes (46%) also made the list. Conversely, 58% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters list democracy as “extremely important” for their vote, followed by SCOTUS picks (57%). Abortion (49%) also made it in there.
Put simply, there was zero overlap between parties. “Partisans differ sharply in their views of the most important vote issues this year, with no common issues among each group’s top five,” the polling agency stated.
By comparison, in the 2008 race, both parties identified the economy as a primary issue.
It is safe to say that no one possesses the answer to this quandary. Perhaps it is a case of voters suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome. Gallup concluded that “slim majorities” of American voters think former President Donald Trump would perform better on the economy and immigration than Vice President Kamala Harris. Suppose this is the consensus among the electorate. How could any left-leaning voter accept that the Republican presidential candidate could potentially be superior to his November rival on any issue, let alone the economy? Again, this is just a theory.
Can Kamalanomics Trump Trumponomics?
A flood of polling data suggests that the vice president has caught up to the real estate billionaire mogul on the economy. A September report by Morning Consult showed that they are tied at 46% among registered voters regarding who they trust more to handle the economy. Last month, a survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research revealed that four in ten registered voters think Trump would do better on the economy, and a similar number chose Harris.
The numbers further support the mainstream narrative of a tight November election. the RealClearPolitics national polling average gives Harris a two-point advantage. The firm also provides Trump with a 0.3-point lead in the battleground states.
Network talking heads routinely purport that the US economy is in great shape and often shrug off the public’s dismay regarding supermarket prices. Last month, CNN’s Elle Reeve lectured a Trump supporter, telling him he has no right to complain about the economy because he owns a boat. “Let me maybe ask a slightly impolite question. But you know, if you can afford a boat, you’re not hurting so bad, right?” Reeve asked. “Because a boat costs a lot of money, and it’s a lot of upkeep.”
But while economists can craft different narratives viewing the data, real-world experiences present a vastly different tale than what the mainstream media conveys to viewers and readers. Yes, the headline inflation rate is at a three-year low of 2.4%, but supercore inflation remains above 4%. Do these statistics matter when the typical household cannot afford a carton of eggs or struggles to keep its heat on in the winter?
Still, for a sizable bloc of voters, the newest declaration is: “It’s not the economy, stupid!”
