Many Americans have lost confidence in election polls – and for a good reason. In 2016, pollsters got it wrong. They got most of it right in 2020, but perhaps for incorrect reasons. Very interested parties tend to scour the polls daily, but for most voters, who are busy with their lives, the constant barrage of surveys just adds more confusion. For those who really want to know what Election Day 2022 will bring, there are three key indicators.
Election Day 2022: Three Things
To spot the markers that provide a realistic outcome in the upcoming midterms, it is vital to step back from the minutia and consider the macro picture. Here are three simple ways to avoid shock and awe on Nov. 8. The first of these is to observe the primary voter turnout. Those who cast their ballots in the primaries have invested time and effort in voting.
For all intents and purposes (and much to the chagrin of many), the US has a mere two parties – Republicans and Democrats. In 2006, 2010, 2014, and again in 2018, the party with the most primary voters won. This year the GOP has the advantage, as 52% of those who cast ballots were Republican, while 48% voted as Democrats. Not only were there more conservative voters, but the figures revealed a broad base. Of the 35 states tracked by pollster John Couvillon, a greater number of the GOP faithful came out in 33 states compared to the 2018 season, while increases for the Democrats occurred in only 16. In other words, the Republican advantage is wide in this key factor. This statistic is not exactly a surprise for the party out of power in a midterm election. Still, it does forecast the loyal opposition is showing some mojo and is ready to take back the reins of power.
Better yet for the GOP, these primary voter increases came in key swing states. In Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Ohio, Arizona, and the all-important commonwealth of Pennsylvania, more Republicans voted than Democrats. Some Dems claim that things changed once the Supreme Court issued its landmark decision returning the abortion issue to the states. But that is not accurate. Even after the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling, Republicans maintained their turnout advantage. It was 51% to 49%, which is not as broad as the primaries before the overturning of Roe v. Wade, but it’s still there. The message is clear: Dems may be motivated to vote on the abortion issue, but not enough to erase the Republican gain. This brings us to indicator number two – voter enthusiasm.
(Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images)
The issues are what cause voters to cast a ballot. This motivation comes from personal self-interest. Here again, Republicans seemingly have the advantage when Election Day 2022 arrives. “Breaking down the electorate by party identification, 64% of Republicans say they are Very Excited about voting in the midterms, compared to 56% of Democrats who are Very Excited,” according to a September poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports. Respondents were surveyed on abortion, crime, immigration, and climate change. Economic factors were noticeably absent from the list of questions, ostensibly because the topics of inflation or gas and food costs tend to cross the political divide. This exclusion of the economy reveals which party has the greatest motivation to vote.
Finally, we come to whether the polls are an accurate predictor of an election. If you are old enough to remember the peanut butter commercial, “Choosey mothers choose Jif,” then you are on the right track. Voters who are genuinely interested in knowing an election outcome rather than a validation of their hopes will wisely choose which polls they read. One such outfit worth consulting is the Trafalgar Group – not simply because of its accuracy (which is relatively high) – but because it uses a carefully conducted polling method. This includes consulting the state voting rolls, carefully selecting the demographics of its sample, and working hard to ferret out the shy or reluctant voter. In this third and final indicator, Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly “is out on a limb once again, projecting good news for Republicans across the board compared with what other pollsters are reporting,” according to an interview conducted by Dan McLaughlin for National Review. He went on to say:
“[Cahaly] thinks there was a larger-than-usual turnout of low-propensity voters in the high-turnout Republican primaries, and that people who don’t vote as regularly were likelier to support Trump-backed candidates. He argues that those voters are likelier to turn out this fall than in past midterms. He notes that there are still more voters out there than people think who support Trump himself but are otherwise not regular Republican voters.”
So, it seems Republicans have reason to be optimistic this November. Winning back the House and Senate is by no means a done deal, but at this point, things are looking up for the loyal opposition.
