As midterm elections loom in the not-so-distant future, the remnants of the much-ballyhooed but ebbing blue wave continue to concern Republicans when it comes to holding the House. But the Senate is an entirely different matter.
On the surface, the math might make the upper chamber seem like an easier mark for the Democrats. They need to flip just two seats to seize control of the Senate, compared to the 24 required to gain the majority in the House.
A Must Win Situation
But the challenge for Democrats becomes far more daunting when you consider the sheer volume of Senate seats they must defend. They are the incumbents in 74% of the races – 26 of 35 – that will be decided this November. Democrats must win all of them and beat the GOP in two others to reach the promised land.
Enter the ten Democrat Senators who are up for reelection this year in states won by Donald Trump, many of them in decisive fashion. What are these red state Dems to do? Run against Trump? Run toward him? Split the difference? Ignore him (if that’s even possible)?
These are the questions that must soon be answered by vulnerable Senators like Claire McCaskill (D-MO), Joe Donnelly (D-IN) and Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND).
In a year when so much is at stake, particularly for Democrats, one of the most inexplicable decisions in recent memory was the campaign spearheaded by another of the most vulnerable of red-state Dems, Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, to derail Trump’s nominee for Veterans Affairs Director, Ronny Jackson. Trump responded by tweeting out a call for Tester’s resignation.
Allegations made by Senator Jon Tester against Admiral/Doctor Ron Jackson are proving false. The Secret Service is unable to confirm (in fact they deny) any of the phony Democrat charges which have absolutely devastated the wonderful Jackson family. Tester should resign. The…..
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 28, 2018
Democrats must now realize, if they didn’t already, that Trump will hardly go soft on the more moderate members in their ranks just because they occasionally vote Trump’s way when it doesn’t matter (for example, on cabinet nominees who already have sufficient GOP support to be confirmed). The President was even willing to send Vice President Pence out to criticize the Senate’s most pro-Trump Democrat, Joe Manchin (D-WV):
.@Sen_JoeManchin voted no to give working families more of your hard-earned money. Joe voted no on tax cuts. Joe voted no time and again on the policies that West Virginia needs. #JoeVotedNo pic.twitter.com/uV7SdAa2q8
— Vice President Mike Pence (@VP) January 31, 2018
The Democrats’ successes since their shocking loss in 2016 have been well chronicled. They are particularly proud of their lopsided gubernatorial victory in Virginia, and the upset pulled off by Conor Lamb (while actually espousing much of the President’s agenda) in a Pennsylvania House district captured easily by Trump. And they have exceeded expectations in several other races at the congressional and state levels.
Fending Off Facts
Joe Manchin
But have these victories made the Democrats overconfident or even complacent, believing their own hype about a blue wave? It is hard to believe they would take anything for granted after 2016. And yet, they have provided no evidence of a coherent positive agenda, apparently assuming that relentless opposition to Trump will suffice. They have done everything in their power to use the Special Counsel investigation to distract attention from the unmistakable signs of a reviving economy.
Democrats apparently believe posturing as the anti-Trump party is more appealing to persuadable voters than jobs, economic growth, and their own paychecks. This is a strategy fraught with peril.
Ultimately, the Dems’ best option for dealing with this president in an election season may be captured in the headline of a recent piece in Politico: “When Trump Attacks, Democrats Shut Their Mouths and Pray.”
