Sweden has been heavily criticized for its strategy of allowing the healthy population to be infected by the Wuhan Coronavirus to achieve herd immunity. However, the numbers show that the Swedish death rate is comparable to the American – all without the draconian shutdown. According to Swedish authorities, the hardest-hit region of Stockholm will reach herd immunity during May 2020. If so, the Swedes may emerge among the winners with the most effective and least damaging strategy.
Herd Immunity
While most Western countries chose extreme lockdown measures to combat the SARS-CoV-2 virus, Sweden opted for a different approach. Swedish State Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell recommended individual responsibility in social distancing and keeping schools, kindergartens, restaurants, and many businesses open as usual. The goal is herd immunity, which is the strategy of infecting a sufficiently large part of the healthy population with the virus to create a wall of immunity that protects the old and sick.
Soon, however, the Swedish government was hammered with criticism due to a much higher death rate than the neighboring countries Finland, Denmark, and Norway. Even President Donald Trump chimed in and highlighted Sweden as a failure.
Failure?
Sweden may have been unjustly demonized for their strategy. As of April 17, 2020, its death rate at 139 per million is low compared to countries like France, Italy, Spain, and Belgium. The latter looms at 445 per million. By comparison, 107 people per million have died in the United States. Notice that this is only 23% lower than in Sweden.
It turns out that most of Sweden’s COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in Stockholm. One-third of nursing homes are infected with the virus, and almost all mortalities have occurred in these institutions.
This is not the fault of the herd immunity strategy, but rather a failure to protect and isolate the elderly due to incompetence. Once the problem was identified, steps were taken to strengthen the routines to protect vulnerable groups in the health care system. Therefore, expect the death rate to fall in Sweden in the coming weeks and months.
Success?
The spread of the virus is slowing down in Sweden, comparable to countries that opted for a shutdown. Tegnell said in a press conference that the government believes around 30% of the population in Stockholm is infected. “Our mathematical models indicate that we will start to see flock immunity emerging in Stockholm during May.”
Reopening
The surprisingly good numbers coming out of Sweden are worth noticing. They may be directly relevant to the ongoing process of reopening the economy in America. If Sweden’s laissez-faire policy is successful, it could help other countries to handle the virus in a less economically destructive way when the virus returns in the next flu season.
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