The American establishment media has declared Vice President Kamala Harris the winner of the debate held in Philadelphia on Tuesday, September 10. This should not come as a shock. When was the last time the legacy press and their network alter egos gave a debate win to a Republican? Who was moved to change their vote as a result of the verbal sparring contest? What constitutes winning anyway? The answers to these questions should shed some light on all this post-debate handwringing and apprehension by conservatives.
Question One: When Was the Last Time the Press Declared a Republican Won a Debate?
A simple look back at the history of presidential debates provides crucial information that can be applied here. (For this sample, the 2024 Biden/Trump debate is intentionally removed because one of the participants is cognitively disabled, rendering the event a political nolo contendere.) In 2020, NBC News asked three “experts” to evaluate the debate between Joe Biden and the sitting president at the time, Donald Trump. All three gave Mr. Biden the win. In fact, the American Fourth Estate was pretty much in unanimity – it was Joe’s night.
How about in 2016, when former First Lady Hillary Clinton and GOP candidate Donald Trump met for three debates? Writing for Vox, Ezra Klein penned an article that typified the overwhelming media assessment of the debates. “Hillary Clinton’s 3 debate performances left the Trump campaign in ruins” with the subtitle: “Donald Trump didn’t just destroy himself. Hillary Clinton destroyed him.” Surprise! The media declared Clinton as the winner.
Then there was Barack Obama versus Mitt Romney in 2012 and Obama again versus John McCain in 2008. The established press concluded – take a wild guess here – that the winner was Obama and Obama. How about George W. Bush and John Kerry? The mainstream media claimed the winner of that contest would be none other than Democrat John Kerry. In 2000, Al Gore went up against Dubya, and in 1996, Bill Clinton debated Bob Dole – you can fill in the blanks as to which candidates the legacy media anointed as victors.
So, according to the established press, in the last seven presidential contests spanning almost 30 years, a Democrat won every single debate. Imagine that. How is it, then, that Republicans won three of these presidential contests? It boggles the mind, (she said with a tinge of sarcasm).
Thus, in answer to question one: When was the last time the legacy press and their network alter egos gave a debate win to a Republican? The answer is they haven’t given a single debate win to anyone other than a Democrat – at least in the 21st century.
Question Two: Who Was Moved to Change Their Vote?
Considering the above, some might conclude that a debate win is merely the result of a headline slapped on a news story. However, logic dictates that the candidate declared the winner should at least demonstrate the ability to sway the undecided to vote for the victor. Using this as a reasonable measure, let’s take a look at who appeared to move the needle, even if ever so slightly: Harris or Trump?
Reuters conducted a focus group of ten undecided voters. Following the debate, three said they planned to vote for Harris, and another six moved into the Trump camp. The New York Times also ran a focus group of eight swing voters. Two went for Trump, one to Harris, and the others said the debate didn’t move them one way or another. The Wall Street Journal‘s focus group only included a handful of undecided voters. Most said Ms. Harris won the debate (save one who called it a draw), but their opinion of the ABC televised event did not appear to cause a significant shift in their voting preferences.
Similarly, flash or snap polls conducted immediately following the debate showed Harris winning but with little change in voting preferences. This means the swing voters were able to distinguish between a good debate and who spoke substance to the issues they cared about.
Question Three: What constitutes a Debate Win?
Defining former President Trump appeared to be the strategy of the Harris camp, but at this point, who in America does not know Donald Trump? In reviewing the Harris strategy, Kimberley Strassel of the Wall Street Journal made the following salient points:
“Ms. Harris spent the debate casting Mr. Trump as a truly unpleasant dude. And? ‘We are voting for the leader of our country,’ not ‘who we want in our wedding party,’ said a Pennsylvania woman in the CNN group. She now plans to vote Trump. Of the six Trump converts in the Reuters article, ‘all said they did not like him as a person. They said their personal financial situation had been better when he was president.’”
Meanwhile, in academia, political and behavioral scientists find that debate audiences primarily consist of partisan viewers. These are people who have already made up their minds and want to see how their candidate performs. Research shows that televised debates historically have a negligible effect on voter preferences or are a form of confirmation bias. In large part, experts have found that debates are a form of preaching to the choir.
A University of Pennsylvania study concluded that “While debate watchers gained knowledge about policies, their assessment of candidates’ qualifications did not change.” Naturally, it’s nice when the candidate of your choice puts in a stellar performance, giving them bragging rights. However, being declared the winner in a debate is just not as important as one would think.
