Inside the Biden White House, after more than 1,000 days of brutal conflict in Ukraine, officials at some level are considering a new strategy. It appears the “as-long-it-takes” approach is taking too long, and President-elect Donald Trump’s national security team is readying to take over. It seems Joe Biden’s coterie of official geopolitical thinkers is floating the notion of providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine.
Biden Officials Offer Unthinkable Solution
These conversations were a reaction to what current members of NATO and Biden’s national security team anticipate is Trump’s intention to secure a negotiated peace in Ukraine. The question on the table is if peace in Ukraine is predicated on an agreed-to ceasefire, how is the ceasefire guaranteed? One answer was posited in an Off the Press post that referred to a New York Times article, “Trump’s Vow to End the War Could Leave Ukraine With Few Options”:
“So, US and European officials are discussing deterrence as a possible security guarantee for Ukraine, such as stockpiling a conventional arsenal sufficient to strike a punishing blow if Russia violates a ceasefire. Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union. That would be an instant and enormous deterrent. But such a step would be complicated and have serious implications.”
These are the kinds of conversations that go on when there are no adults in the room. The concept of returning nuclear weapons suggests that, as a member of the former Warsaw Bloc countries, Ukraine had autonomy in the employment of atomic warheads. In fact, these were Soviet Union-era weapons that belonged to and were under the command and control of the Kremlin, or so it was thought.
New evidence, however, suggests Ukraine had more control over the use of the weapons than originally believed. “These records cut sharply against the rationale for this historical resignation: that Ukraine was incapable of the technical means of operating nuclear weapons and that such weapons wouldn’t do much for its security even if it could,” The National Interest reported. Ukraine was sacrificing its security in the interest of international guarantees. Nonetheless, those weapons were removed from Ukraine in 1994 in compliance with the Security Assurances in Connection With Ukraine’s Accession to the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
Countries that signed the treaty, also called the Budapest Memorandum, were the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, the United States, and Northern Ireland. The memorandum effectively declared that if Kyiv gave up the nuclear weapons stored in Ukraine, the signatories of the non-proliferation agreement would “refrain from threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.” Well, obviously, the Russian Federation violated the treaty. Moscow has a long history of engaging in such violations.
What Will Putin Do?
The lunacy of threatening to introduce modern nuclear weapons, which is what they would be, presumably since bringing back the original weapons is not possible, is mind-boggling. Who would have command and control over these weapons? With a ceasefire violation by Russia, wouldn’t Ukraine be more likely to resort to using the nuclear weapons if it could? And if operational control of the weapons remained with the United States or some other nuclear NATO nation, by whose authority would they be used? The lack of will displayed by the United States and NATO so far indicates the weapons would not be employed. So where is the deterrence value?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to use the Kremlin’s tactical nuclear arsenal based on a reduced threshold, and now NATO and US national security officials believe he will back down and be deterred if Ukraine once again is a nuclear nation. This comes from Biden officials whose constant mantra has been, “Don’t do anything that would escalate the conflict.”
When the United States provided longer range capability for Kyiv to strike targets deeper inside Russia, Putin reacted strongly. “Putin has warned, even before releasing the revised nuclear doctrine, that the use of long-range missiles supplied by the West to attack Russia would constitute war,” Liberty Nation News reported. Imagine Moscow’s reaction even if the return of nuclear weapons to Ukraine were under the guise of ensuring a ceasefire. Did anyone actually think through musing about the deterrent effect of returning nuclear warheads to Ukraine? The United States and select NATO countries have nuclear-capable weapons in Europe. Installing some in Ukraine would be unnecessary atomic belt and suspenders.
Trump is going to have enough on his plate negotiating an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine without unnamed US officials sitting around spit-balling about deploying nukes to Ukraine. Such thinking is dangerous and the act of desperation by an administration in the death throes of a failed foreign policy. Worse yet, Putin might consider such notions to be authentic US and NATO planning and use such ravings as a pretext for reacting in a dangerous manner. Did anyone on the Biden team even consider this catastrophic possibility?
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
