President Joe Biden met with his national security team to ferret out a response to Iran, which has been orchestrating a murderous rampage across Israel through its terroristic proxies. Predictably, nothing the United States has done to this point has had even the slightest impact on the hostilities. So far, Israel has done all the heavy lifting by eliminating Hamas military commander Mohammad Deif; killing Fuad Shukr, senior adviser to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah; and assassinating Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh.
Israel’s recent air attack on the Houthis’ main access to the Red Sea significantly damaged the Al Hodeidah port in Yemen, raising the question of why the United States didn’t do that months ago. Meanwhile, the US attacks on Iran-sponsored militias and proxies are more akin to tit-for-tat pinpricks and have failed to halt the Houthi assaults on Red Sea merchant shipping. Additionally, the Iran-backed Iraqi militias have resumed firing missiles and drones at US military installations in Iraq.
National Security Team Meets to Discuss Iran Threat to Israel
The president met with his national security team in the White House situation room on Aug. 5 to discuss what action the United States should take in the event Iran carries out its threat to inflict “severe punishment” on Israel. In an interview on Fox News’ Life, Liberty, and Levin, the chairman of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Gen. Jack Keane, explained:
“[The White House’s] number one concern is about escalation which in itself shows a sign of weakness. This has been the problem from the outset. It is that [from] the horrific attack on October 7, Iran operationalized immediately all of the other proxies on October 8. Hezbollah began to fire on northern Israel. The Iranian-backed Shia militias in Iraq and Syria prior to October 7 had already fired on US troops 125 times. They stepped it up from October 7 on. And the Houthis have effectively shut down the Suez Canal. And yet to this day, we still do not hold Iran accountable for anything I just said.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a “whistling past the graveyard” phone call to his G-7 counterparts — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom — discussed the “urgent need for de-escalation in the Middle East.” Missing from a readout of the call was any acknowledgment that Iran is culpable for fomenting the crisis in the Middle East. Instead, the potential for a ceasefire in Gaza was the primary topic as the “Secretary and Foreign Ministers reiterated their commitment to Israel’s security and urged restraint from all parties to keep the conflict from escalating.” However, without holding Tehran accountable for the terror in the Middle East, there is little likelihood any strategy will work.
In another development, despite the impression of disharmony left after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Washington, DC, Biden “reaffirmed his commitment to Israel’s security against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis” in a phone call to the Israeli leader. “The President discussed efforts to support Israel’s defense against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive US military deployments.”
Biden’s Options for US Intervention Are Limited
If history is any guide, Biden’s National Security Council has few options left to defend Israel, considering its reluctance to confront Iran directly. On the other hand, Iran’s April attack demonstrated Tehran’s capable use of its air assets and those of its proxies. The defensive actions of Israel, the United States, and Jordan were sufficient to down 99% of the incoming ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles fired at Israel. So, should Iran attempt an April redux, the outcome will likely be the same.
The ISW’s Iran Updates, Israel-Hamas War from Aug. 4 suggested that:
“Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel in response to Israel killing Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. [ISW] previously outlined this scenario as one of the most dangerous courses of action that Iran could pursue … Iran could fire more projectiles at Israel, change the number of locations targeted, or conduct a series of attacks over an extended period. Iran could also order simultaneous attacks on US forces.”
In such a scenario, US attention would be diverted to protect its American forces to some extent. Add several hundred suicide bombers from the West Bank in a ground assault streaming into Israel, and the outcome might be gloomy, even with all the US resources posted in the region. Coordinated airstrikes from different directions and ground attacks by jihadist fanatics at numerous entrances into Israel would likely result in the Israel Defense Force facing a daunting confrontation.
If the United States intends to hold Tehran accountable, including its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its Navy, and its nuclear enrichment sites, it must make clear that Iran’s most prized national treasures are at extreme risk. Currently, it does not appear Iranian leadership believes that.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
